For decades, newspaper editors have loved to append ‘, scientists say’ to the headline of any story that they felt could do with a credibility boost. It was code to their readers: you must not argue with this story’s conclusions. The same applied to documentaries on pay TV.
Continue readingOil price caps
Carlo Cipolla was an Italian economic historian. He wrote a book about the theory of human stupidity. His theory was based on five fundamental laws, one of which is that stupid people are defined as taking actions that hurt both themselves and others. I was reminded of his work when I heard about the latest announcement from the EU, G7 and Australia to impose a cap on the price of Russian sourced oil of US$60 per barrel.
Continue readingWind angle
Let the good times roll.
There are many versions of the song Let the Good Times Roll. All of them are worth playing now. If you want my suggestion try Earl King’s version.
The times are looking good. Wokism has destroyed itself by being so vile that nobody has not seen it for what it is. I’m optimistic that starting with next week’s mid term elections in the US that a massive wave has been unleashed to sweep away the toxic garbage of modern left wing politics everywhere.
The silent majority is both silent (until election day) and the majority. Let the good times roll. Left wing politics is about to be booted into oblivion for decades. That will be so sweet. I’m more optimistic than I have been for years.
The Laffer Curve arrives in UK
The new Truss executive in the UK is setting out to restore a little faith in conservative politics economics. First, removal of the fracking ban. Now a tax reduction package described by most commentators as the biggest cut in taxes for decades. That’s excellent news. Yes, it needs to be followed up by expenditure cuts since the real measure of tax in an economy is the level of Government expenditure rather than the tax take. But, a tax cut will help even in the absence of an expenditure cut.
The reasons are well known. Arthur Laffer is the US economist credited with the naming rights of the Laffer Curve. In simple terms, Art’s point was that at a zero rate of tax, the total tax take would be zero. Likewise for a tax rate of 100%. In other words, the tax rate that would maximize the tax take was between 0% and 100%. What’s more, at higher rates of tax, a tax rate reduction would actually increase the tax take. That can only happen if economic growth increases. President Reagan understood the concept and the Reagan tax cuts were a huge success.
Now, 40 years later, the Truss government is following the same path. Well done Liz, this is a great start.
Updated population forecasts for China
Some readers may remember this post from last year where I included a UN forecast of China’s future population numbers.
It seems the UN has updated its forecast. Furthermore, a number of other institutions have forecasts that are even more pessimistic.
The implications of this, if borne out in practice, are significant. We will know in a few years if the peak has passed and the downward trend has commenced.
The imminent de-industrialisation of Europe
The de-industrialisation of Europe is now inevitable and imminent. With it will probably come political regime change. It will be rapid and dramatic, and most likely occur in the northern spring of 2023.
The seeds of this looming crisis have been sown over the last decade.
Firstly, European political power structures have done what they always do – become ever tightened; ever divergent from the wants, needs, values and expectations of the citizenry; increasingly reliant on the state controlled forces of the police, military and more recently media, technology and finance companies to censor and crush domestic political dissent; and never able to admit error or change policies.
Continue readingEnough of the madness. Show me the sea.
Your correspondent is not always frothing at the mouth in the face of current political madness in the West. He recovers his sanity at sea.
Australian Actuary 