Since the atrocities of World War II, Germans have been ultra cautious to avoid overt politics.

Coalitions among a multi-party parliament have been the norm, polarisation in the political divide compressed towards the centre. With the exception of tearing down the Berlin Wall, the fall of the Soviet Union and the resulting freeing of the brutalised citizens of the former East Germany, outward signs of political opposition were muted. That’s now changing.

I said in this post last year that the deindustrialisation of Europe is imminent. Yesterday, the German Vice-Chancellor and Economy Minister Robert Habeck said that Germany may be forced to wind down or even switch off industrial capacity if Ukraine’s gas transit agreement with Russia isn’t extended after it expires at the end of next year.

Germany used to generate electricity from nuclear reactors. For decades, those reactors provided reliable cheap energy. They are all gone. The last one was shut down in April. Now Germany depends on Russian gas for its energy. Since the undersea gas pipe line in the Baltic was destroyed, the single remaining pipeline transits Ukraine. Despite the war in Ukraine, Russian gas flows through Ukraine to Germany and Ukraine collects transit fees as a result. The contract runs until the end of next year.

Relations between Russia, Ukraine and Germany are perhaps not conducive to a renegotiated gas supply contract being completed and ready to go in just over a year. This is clearly the risk that the Vice Chancellor is referring to.

The German people can also see the problem. Last week, official data released in Germany showed that the economy is now in recession. The unemployment rate is rising again after nearly 20 years decline (aside from the temporary hit imposed by policy response to Covid19). A recession, inflation, rising unemployment and an energy crisis that has potential to turn into an energy catastrophe are easy problems to see. What is different is that for the first time in a long time, there are signs that a political upheaval is underway.

Political support for the Greens is falling markedly while support for the AfD party is rising. According to Politico’s poll of polls, Green support fell from 23% in July 2022, to 14% this week. AfD support has risen from 10% to 19% over the same time. Support for the other parties is relatively consistent. It is unlikely that voters are switching allegiance away from the Greens and to the AfD, which is described by most media outlets as “far right wing”. Instead, some Green support must be switching towards the centrist parties who in turn must be losing some support to AfD. Overall, there is a substantial move away from the left, including its extreme left flank, the Greens, towards the right. In the context of Germany’s political history of the last 100 years, that is unprecedented and, in my view, signals an upheaval.

Not everyone is pleased. Look at these extracts from Politico:

This group-think is interesting. ‘AfD is an extreme far right party’ is a central tenet of the narrative. So is ‘the painful past of Germany was a result of an evil right wing extremist’.

Of course, both beliefs are wrong. Let’s put Nazism away first. The Nazi party formed out of the National Socialist German Workers Party. It was founded in a totalitarian ideal of crushed individual liberty, that raised the authority of the State, rejected the central notion of the rule of law and liberal democracy. It added in racial superiority and the persecution of groups of people deemed by the party to be unworthy.

Yes, the Nazi party was an evil organisation led by an evil dictator but don’t try to sanitise it out of left wing politics. Totalitarianism is the inherent central characteristic of the Left. It has various versions: Communism, Fascism, Marxism and Nazism. Social democratic left parties such as UK Labour, Australian Labor, US Democratics and the German SDP are toned down versions of the extreme left but behind the scenes they are all plotting for more political power to wield over the citizenry. By the way, there is no such thing as an extreme right party. The central characteristic of right wing policy is the freedom and responsibility of the individual.

Now consider the AdF. I have read its (lengthy) policy manifesto and I can report that it makes sense. It is not an extreme party of any sort. It supports the fundamental requirements of a free nation: democracy, the rule of law, individual rights and responsibilities, small government and the separation of powers of the legislature, the executive and the judiciary. It is what used to be called a conservative party before conservative parties self destructed under the Mark Textor Doctrine.*

It is painful for the German people to be going through these times and they are going to get worse before they get better. At same time, it is worth remembering that if something can’t last forever it won’t. The economic policies of the German governments in recent decades have led to a potentially serious problem. People can put up with a lot of trouble and strife for a long time but eventually the mood changes. When the public mood changes, it changes dramatically.

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* The Mark Textor Doctrine: Textor was a political analyst and advisor to the once right of centre Liberal Party of Australia. He advised the Liberal Party to shift its policy positions to be more like the Leftist/Socialist Labor party because while that would pick up more wavering Labor voters, the Conservative voters had no alternative and therefore would have to continue to vote Liberal.