Tectonic plates move continents, create mountains and cause earthquakes. They move slowly, generate enormous potential energy, then release that energy in occasional calamitous grinding shudders. The social equivalent of tectonic plates drive international politics and war. To understand the state of current international politics, you must first look at the social tectonic plates below the surface.
Plate 1 is NATO expansion eastward. Plate 2 is the malaise in western civilization. Plate 3 is the ambition of the Chinese Communist Party. These are three social tectonic plates, equivalent to terrestrial tectonic plates, that have driven the world over the last 50 years to its current place.
Consider each plate separately.
1. NATO. The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation was formed after the end of the second world war in 1949. Initially, there were 12 founding member countries, dominated by US, UK and France. The aim was a combined commitment to mutual protection for participating member countries to guard against another atrocious war driven by the mad forces in eastern Europe. By 1990, there were 16 member countries. At that time, the Soviet Union was breaking apart. The Berlin Wall had fallen, the states that had been under Communist control since the end of the war were in turmoil. The West, lead by the US, negotiated terms of reunification of Germany with Soviet leader Gorbachev. As part of the deal, the US promised that NATO would not move “1 inch to the east.” The promise wasn’t honoured. Today, there are 31 member countries in NATO, all of them added to the east since 1990. Russia has warned the West for over 20 years that the continued NATO expansion eastward was problematic and the concept of Ukraine joining NATO was unacceptable. It was President Eisenhower who coined the term ‘the military industrial complex’ as that potentially serious problem, urging endless foreign wars to make money. That it exists, is no longer potential and continues to this day has been obvious since the Korean War. Russian President Putin warned of inevitable push back against NATO eastward expansion and in 2022, he acted.
2. Western civilisation decay. Only a country with enough wealth to go around has the luxury to elevate to the national conversation the outrage of self appointed victims of misgendering. These victims are outraged because other people do not refer to them by their preferred pronouns. It is a mental sickness. The days of worrying about making a living have been replaced by worrying why the school teacher refuses to refer to you by your preferred, but obviously imaginary, pronouns. This malaise is not afflicting less wealthy countries. It makes our military leaders more concerned with diversity recruitment than maintaining ammunition and supply lines. The former leader of the Australian Army, David Morrison, is possibly best known for publicising himself wearing high heels and rejecting violence. Did he ever see active service? Did he distinguish himself in military affairs? Or is his claim to fame that he puts himself in womens’ shoes? To ask if the Chief of Australian Army sent a message of authority, influence, menace and strength to our potential enemies is answered by merely asking the question. He is a fool, thankfully no longer in charge. Yet how did he get to be Chief of Army? Because the west has grown complacent, fat, weak, insipid through wealth. It infects all public institutions.
The West looks internally at the inane topics of Diversity, Inclusion and Equity, (DIE), preferred pronouns, endless fatuous claims and counterclaims of racism, hurtful attitudes, misgendering etc. The Australian government is attempting to convince the people to vote a change to the constitution to divide people by race. Former NZ Prime Minister Ardern has taken up a role at Harvard University to combat extremist content online. I think that means opinions she doesn’t like will be banned. The UK government has banned the sale of new cars powered by petroleum after 2030. Modern day problems for people without real problems.
Neil Howe is one of the authors of the book The Fourth Turning. I heard him recently explaining that male behaviour responds to female demands but that the adjustment lags. In recent decades, there was a well acknowledged view from women (in general) that men ought to be less stilted, less macho, more in tune with their feelings, let their feminine side show more. He thinks women are now getting what they used to ask for. Witness the former Chief of Army but also the pathetic male specimens in corporate life in the west prostrating themselves as toxic in front of virtually everyone. They attend womens’ celebratory events and self flagellate. They join groups labelled Male Champions of Change. They swallowed hook, line and sinker the gender pay gap lie. It is both amusing and alarming to watch. While it may please some older women, it is not at all clear that younger women are impressed. Surveys of younger women are increasingly pointing to problems in the dating world rather than improvements.
The incessant moaning about the climate crisis is heard only in countries made wealthy by the abundance of energy created by the successful exploitation of coal, oil and gas. That there is no climate crisis is obvious to most people on the planet, but not, seemingly, to a number of people in the west who ought to know better, given the cost of their education. I think the definition of the cost of education needs updating. It should no longer refer to the expensive tuition fees of top schools and universities. It is now the cost that brainwashing imposes, that of knowledge withheld and doctrine inserted.
A society that spends much of its time arguing about such trivialities has too much time and wealth on its hands. Civilisational collapses in history follow the same path. Success breeds hubris, decay, introspection, internal argument and draws attention and effort away from the basic truths of life: that there are two sexes, they unite to procreate, we all have to earn a living, men are hunters, providers and protectors, women are carers and nurturers.
3. Chinese Communists. The Chinese people are subjugated under a brutal communist regime. The CCP leadership has ambitions for the restoration of China as the world’s hegemonic state. China makes its intentions clear to anyone that cares to pay attention. Hong Kong has been reabsorbed. Taiwan is on notice. Chinese Christians are exiled and imprisoned. There is no place for Christians in a communist state. China adds a new coal fired electricity plant on average every week in pursuit of steel to build infrastructure, both military and civilian. Its military is on constant alert. Its Chief of Army does not wear high heels. China steals intellectual property, manipulates its foreign exchange rates where it can and is actively seeking an alternative international reserve currency to the US dollar. It is establishing vassal states under its Belt and Road initiative. It provides money in return for power, influence and an IOU. Even Australian state premiers have been caught up in the intoxicating prospect of money – until the national body pulled rank and forced Victorian disgraceful premier Andrews to pull out.
Meanwhile, the demographic picture of China is not good, if you happen to be a leader in the CCP. As I documented elsewhere, China is at risk of growing old before growing rich. That will limit its decline into a western malaise but it will also limit its effectiveness as a aggressive global ambitious power. Unfortunately it also puts an urgency into Chinese decision making about foreign territorial ambitions.
Where will these social tectonic plates collide and what will result?
There are some reasons to be cheerful. Most young people that I know recognize the toxic stupidity of the perpetually outraged, of the outrage archaelogists, of the gender confused, of the bone idle and lazy grifters. I don’t know any young person who supports the efforts of the Just Stop Oil crowd. There are some indications of young men shifting to the right in their political views.
On top of that, the US has run out of ammo, as the US President has said. The endless war in Ukraine has suddenly become no longer endless. The West has run out of money and can no longer print it, given where inflation is. Maybe the war in Ukraine will have to end soon. The demise of the US as the sole military superpower could bring some advantages, not least the retirement of the country club set that weekends at Newport Rhode Island and orders wars in foreign territories through the week.
Only generational change can solve the issue. As the baby boomers disappear, the Gen Xers move into retirement, the emerging leaders and decision makers will come from the Millennials and Gen Z groups. I don’t believe that Gen Z spends all its time on TikTok in a fatuous pseudo existence. Generational attitudes shift like a pendulum and Gen Z is perfectly positioned to lead a retreat from Baby Boomer and Gen X lunacy. In large part, this will be forced upon them due to inane energy crippling decisions of current western governments. With luck, western warmongering will run out of steam in the very near future. NATO expansion will end. A new world currency established by China with the backing of Russia, India and Brazil will likely threaten the US dollar but that would force a renewed discipline on the US. Watch what emerges from Durban, South Africa later this month on that front.
So I think plates 1 and 2 will self correct. The wild card is China. Will it play by the long patient art of war without fighting or feel the need to act now before it atrophies?
Australian Actuary 