Month: September 2016

More on the SA #power debacle – abnormal weather?

AustralianActuary Business

In my post yesterday, I pointed out that there was nothing unusual about the weather hitting South Australia in the last few days. Hence, the inability of the State’s power network to cope with this weather showed inherent fragility that would turn away investment dollars. The State’s future is seriously in doubt – no one should think otherwise.

But some people questioned my claim that the weather was not abnormal. They may have listened to the Premier or many journalists or other climate change religionists calling this a climate change induced once-in-a-lifetime apocalyptic weather bomb (yes, those descriptions have all been used.) Continue reading →

South Australia’s #power shut down

AustralianActuary Business

South Australia’s electricity grid completely shut down yesterday. The whole state was without electricity for many hours. Even today, power is still out for many households and businesses. The Premier blames an extreme weather event. Well, if you look at the actual weather observations from around the state yesterday from the Bureau of Meteorology, it is blindingly obvious that while it was wet and windy, the weather was not at all extreme.

It is clear that the state’s power source is incredibly fragile.

This will make South Australia a very unattractive prospect for any new investment.

Why Government #economic policy is all wrong

AustralianActuary Economics

The typical thinking in Governments and central banks when it comes to current monetary and fiscal policy can be summarized as:

  • fiscal deficit spending is needed to avoid recession, and kickstart investment, growth and economic activity;
  • lower interest rates are needed to stimulate borrowing and spending by consumers;
  • economies need inflation; persistent low inflation or even deflation is to be avoided.

That this groupthink continues to dominate even after years of practical experience to the contrary, is amazing in itself. More seriously, it is very damaging for our economies and will make economic recovery and future growth delayed and harder. Continue reading →

There’s a pattern here

AustralianActuary Economics

Is it just me? Or have others noticed it, too? The number of articles written about climate change and published in the trade magazines and professional journals follow a common language and structure. Almost invariably, the articles will begin along the following lines: “The risks of climate change are becoming increasingly well-known.” Then, there will usually be reference to some global body, such as the UN, the World Economic Forum, the World Bank and of-course the IPCC. This part of the article could say: “[insert name of global body] believes that the world’s climate is at a tipping point and any further delays in action risk catastrophic damage to the planet.” Then, there is reference made to global commitment to action, taken from the most recent gabfest: “Fortunately, real agreement and commitment to action to halt the extent of global warming and transition away from a carbon-based economy is emerging. Leaders at the [name of summit] signed on to a new set of carbon-reduction targets by 20[xx].” Continue reading →