The panicked Australian political leaders and public health experts (sic)

Most of the population of Australia remains in a COVID19-related lockdown that is unjustifiable by any measure. I wonder if any of those people bring facts into their thinking process? To give an update, here are three charts. I have shown data for Australia, UK and US.

First, the number of new cases:

Next, the proportion of those new cases that are of the Delta variant:

Finally, the numbers of deaths:

The increase in new cases in the UK and US winter of 2020/21 also resulted in an increase in deaths. But the increase in the current northern hemisphere summer has resulted in no increase in US deaths and a marginal increase in UK deaths. What changed? Delta. Virtually 100% of the current new cases is Delta. Last northern winter, virtually none of the new cases were Delta. Delta is more transmissible (apparently) but dramatically less deadly.

Meanwhile, Australia locks everyone up.

3 thoughts on “The panicked Australian political leaders and public health experts (sic)

  1. I don’t believe that you can conclude that “Delta is ………dramatically less deadly” unless you know and factor in what proportion of new cases are occurring in people who have been fully or even partially vaccinated. In those instances severity is greatly reduced. Vaccination rates are far higher in UK and USA than here in Aus.

    • Yes, others have made that point, too. If you look at countries with high rates of vaccination and compare them with countries that have low rates of vaccination, you would expect to see higher mortality rates in the latter. Yet, the data does not support that hypothesis.

      It’s not just vaccination rates. It is also other treatment methods that will have improved. Whatever the cause, the deadliness of the delta strain is dramatically lower relative to the initial. Virus mutations always go that way, regardless of the scientific response. That’s the bottom line and it is against that observable fact that lockdowns cannot be justified.

      • “Virus mutations always go that way, regardless of the scientific response”

        I think you may be wrong about that. My understanding of evolution is that it will favour mutations which increase the prevalence of a disease organism. That could result from either an increase or decrease in its virulence. An example favoring a decrease would be an extreme level of virulence which mostly killed before the host had spread the infection. Contra that for example, insufficiently virulent to infect a vaccinated person. Or not enough unvaccinated persons around to maintain the spread (“herd immunity”) . Not my field however. so let’s just say that you haven’t convinced me.

        I do agree, however, and have thought all along, that the lockdowns have been greatly overdone. (noting that I guess i”m 10 years older than you and high risk category). Although, Grant Gladys that she has tried to avoid the gross excesses of Andrews here in Mbne. After what happened last year he should be doing time for manslaughter and expressing abject remorse, As it is I’ll forget to hit the mute button in time one day and I will be subjected yet again to one of his rants about the voirus, preceded by his standard ‘I make no excuse’. Old guy dead after suffering fatal spiral in BP.

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