The Russian invasion of Ukraine remains an act of barbarism. It’s a disaster for many, if not most, of the Ukrainians. It’s also a disaster for the Russian people.

A swift capitulation may have been what Putin expected. It didn’t happen. Putin’s reasons for the invasion have been well telegraphed for at least 20 years and so it’s not really a surprise. The surprise is all on the upside if you are in favour of western civilisation, the nation state and energy independence.

There is a struggle underway for global hegemony. Klaus Schwab, Jinping and Putin wanted to be in charge. Unfortunately for that trio, Putin will fall first, Jinping will retreat to ponder and Schwab will die soon enough unfulfilled. He won’t be missed in this quarter.

Putin has shown: the nation state matters. It is still a thing. Culture and history matters. He has also shown that energy matters. Hence the scramble in Europe to fire up coal fired generators that they previously shut down.

Putin has also shown how hard it is to invade. Jinping won’t have missed the lesson.

Putin is almost out of gas. Ukraine will be supported by the West in rebuilding. Russia will be a Chinese vassal. The fourth turning looks likely to turn out well for everyone outside Ukraine, Russia and China.

Update: as at late July, it seems that Ukraine can’t win and Russia is about to achieve what she set out do to.