Author: AustralianActuary

Basement software coder tries to extrapolate knowledge of computer code to saving humanity. Not entirely successful.

AustralianActuary Life

A co-founder of a behemoth software business, Mike Cannon-Brookes, is in the media now after a spectacular collapse of his dream extension cord business. His plan remains to build a giant solar panel wind farm and a big battery in Australia, and plug that into Singapore via a gigantic cable that traverses more than 5,000 km of the earth, mainly undersea. The project’s other main financier wanted the project scrapped and scaled down into a purely domestic affair. MCB didn’t agree and predictably the project business has collapsed into receivership this week.

Mike knows a few computer languages, I expect. But does he know much about physics? Possibly not, although he could be in the process of learning.

Or maybe not. He also assumed he knew a thing or two about pandemics. Here he is a lambasting Sweden for its public health response to Covid.

And here is the full story.

Sweden 1, MCB 0.

As to the giant extension cord, I expect the result will be Physics 1, MCB 0.

The model is not reality

AustralianActuary Economics

Just look at the state of mainstream media reporting, this from today’s Australian newspaper. Journalist Remy Varga should hang her head in shame.

A model is not reality. It is a supposition based on whatever methods and assumptions the modeller chooses. Change the assumptions and the result changes. Models do not prove anything. Yet here is Remy reporting as if she were part of the Pfizer public relations office. That modelling study is garbage. I know that even without reading it.

The age of inquisitive journalists is over.

Utter garbage brought to readers by NewsCorp

‘Scientists say’ losing effectiveness, scientists say

AustralianActuary Life

For decades, newspaper editors have loved to append ‘, scientists say’ to the headline of any story that they felt could do with a credibility boost. It was code to their readers: you must not argue with this story’s conclusions. The same applied to documentaries on pay TV.

But in a recent piece in the Washington Post, the editors appear to have jumped the shark. Even scientists are now saying that the scientists studying sharks are the wrong sort of scientists.

It’s a toss up as to what is funnier about this piece: that a scientist is getting upset about a science show based on the fact that the scientists were called Mike, or that the WaPo published it.

Oil price caps

AustralianActuary Economics

Carlo Cipolla was an Italian economic historian. He wrote a book about the theory of human stupidity. His theory was based on five fundamental laws, one of which is that stupid people are defined as taking actions that hurt both themselves and others. I was reminded of his work when I heard about the latest announcement from the EU, G7 and Australia to impose a cap on the price of Russian sourced oil of US$60 per barrel.

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Let the good times roll.

AustralianActuary Life

There are many versions of the song Let the Good Times Roll. All of them are worth playing now. If you want my suggestion try Earl King’s version.

The times are looking good. Wokism has destroyed itself by being so vile that nobody has not seen it for what it is. I’m optimistic that starting with next week’s mid term elections in the US that a massive wave has been unleashed to sweep away the toxic garbage of modern left wing politics everywhere.

The silent majority is both silent (until election day) and the majority. Let the good times roll. Left wing politics is about to be booted into oblivion for decades. That will be so sweet. I’m more optimistic than I have been for years.

The Laffer Curve arrives in UK

AustralianActuary Economics

The new Truss executive in the UK is setting out to restore a little faith in conservative politics economics. First, removal of the fracking ban. Now a tax reduction package described by most commentators as the biggest cut in taxes for decades. That’s excellent news. Yes, it needs to be followed up by expenditure cuts since the real measure of tax in an economy is the level of Government expenditure rather than the tax take. But, a tax cut will help even in the absence of an expenditure cut.

The reasons are well known. Arthur Laffer is the US economist credited with the naming rights of the Laffer Curve. In simple terms, Art’s point was that at a zero rate of tax, the total tax take would be zero. Likewise for a tax rate of 100%. In other words, the tax rate that would maximize the tax take was between 0% and 100%. What’s more, at higher rates of tax, a tax rate reduction would actually increase the tax take. That can only happen if economic growth increases. President Reagan understood the concept and the Reagan tax cuts were a huge success.

Now, 40 years later, the Truss government is following the same path. Well done Liz, this is a great start.