Can a leopard change its spots? The Grattan Institute has released a report titled “Back in Black”. It contains recommendations on how to correct Australia’s chronic budget deficit problem.
Continue readingEconomics
Correct analysis, wrong conclusion
What is the point of research and analysis if the conclusions drawn are wrong? How can an institution correctly analyse the problems in our economies and yet call for more of the same actions that have caused the malaise?
Continue readingKilling the cost-push inflation Hydra
Some myths never die. Just last month the Financial Review newspaper in Australia ran an opinion piece written by a senior portfolio manager at an investment management firm. The topic was inflation.
Continue readingDon’t lose sleep over a trade deficit. Don’t get too excited by a trade surplus.
International trade is one of those topics of political economy that many people misunderstand. It’s like inflation, in that regard. The balance of trade, that is the value of exports less imports, is a commonly quoted and discussed national statistic.
Continue readingClueless Central
The Australian central bank governor says he doesn’t know how high interest rates will have to go to get rampant inflation under control. That may be the first thing he has said that I believe.
Continue readingWhy does the RBA target a medium term inflation rate of between 2% and 3% pa?
I’m investigating the origin of this target. I want to know the basis for its creation and on going maintenance. It is not clear to me why the target should not be 0%pa.
Continue readingAttention grabbing headlines
It is said that ‘Dog bites Man’ is not an effective newspaper headline but ‘Man bites Dog’ is. Well, I was reminded today of that, possibly apocryphal, tale from the inky dungeons of old style newspapers sub editors’ offices. ‘Australian Actuary finds himself agreeing with statements from the Greens and then the Labor party.’ Really?
Continue readingWhat a disgrace
twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1598273883357859842
This woman is an utter disgrace. What low levels the public officials in economics have fallen to in the west. It makes me ill to see how her incompetence her lies or both tarnish the reputation of economists more broadly.
Some observations on Australian inflation
I am not optimistic that we have seen the worst of inflation in Australia and I explain why in this post.
In recent days, the December 2022 quarter national statistics covering the money supply, producers’ prices and consumer prices have all been released. The data is worth reviewing for clues about what is yet to come.
Continue readingWarning signs
The Federal Labor Government in Australia appears on track to challenge the Whitlam government of the early 1970s as Australia’s worst ever. Socially and economically the signs are bad.
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Australian Actuary 