
Life
The intolerant left
In 1949, the monumental economic treatise ‘Human Action’ was published, written by Ludwig von Mises. The book remains of immense significance. It is undoubtedly a tough read. Murray Rothbard produced his own magnum opus ‘Man, Economy and State’ a few years later that similarly was an economic treatise built from the ground up. Rothbard and von Mises had similar understandings. Rothbard’s work was a little more accessible for the reader. But von Mises was the grand master. If you question the relevance of a book written over 60 years ago, consider this quotation*:
“The rigid dogmatism peculiar to religious groups and to Marxism results only in irreconciliable conflict. It condemns beforehand all dissenters as evildoers, it calls into question their good faith, it asks them to surrender unconditionally. No social cooperation is possible where such an attitude prevails.”
That quotation is as true, relevant and topical today as it ever was. Today’s Marxists, greens and the totalitarian left are just as vicious as their predecessors.
* Human Action, Ludwig von Mises, Scholar’s edition 1998, p185
The rise of the capital gains tax
It seems likely, judging by the continued Government hints, that the effective rate of tax applied to capital gains on assets held by superannuation funds is going to be increased. Probably this will be announced on Budget night in May and take effect from 7:30pm that night.
As usual, the language is distorted by the politicians to try to twist the truth. I wrote about that in an earlier post. This time around, they say that superannuation funds enjoy a capital gains tax discount. They say the discount results in a remarkably low rate of tax. Hence they are perfectly justified in reducing the discount and making the funds pay a fairer rate of tax. It’s all rubbish, of course. Lies and deception. Continue reading
Britain’s referendum on EU membership
June 23, 2016 is the date of the referendum. On that date, the people of the United Kingdom (of Great Britain and Northern Ireland) will vote on the question of whether to remain a part of the European Union.
I am not eligible to vote. But if I were, I would without hesitation vote Leave. Continue reading
Shooting kites
UPDATE (Feb 15): The kite referred to below has been shot down. The Government has announced it is not planning to freeze the SG at its current rate.
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The Government has done little to quell the press speculation this week that the Superannuation Guarantee rate of contribution, currently 9.5% of earnings but scheduled to increase to 12% over time, will be frozen at 9.5%. The lack of a smack-down suggests the Government truly is considering this option and allowing the media speculation to check for community reaction. It is called kite flying.
Goodness, the self-interested are quick off the mark – slings and arrows at the ready to shoot down that kite. Superannuation industry associations and rent-seekers have become too used to a guaranteed revenue stream coming in under the compulsion of law. It has become a sense of entitlement and they squeal when confronted with even the slightest perception of a threat to that money. They all lined up last week to squeal about how bad an idea that would be. It really is tiresome.
The cancellation of further increases in the compulsory rate of superannuation contribution is a good idea. I hope it is implemented. Then, I hope the Government realises the logic that if future increases in the SG should be dumped, the current rate is also too high. It should be reduced to zero. That’s right – the whole SG regime should be dumped. Continue reading
Bob and Paul argue (again)
The long-established customs of the Christmas period have religious and spiritual origins, of course. But how do more recent additions to the customs of an Australian Christmas, such as the yacht races to Tasmania, the Boxing Day test match, lunch with one set of relatives and dinner with another, and traffic jams to get out of the cities become established? And moving on towards New Year, how has it happened that no Government, big or small, Federal or State, no local municipality believes that there can be too many fireworks displays? Amorous cicadas must hate 31 December in the late evening.
New Year’s day also is the day when Government cabinet papers from years gone by lose their confidential status and are released to the public. It is typically a 25 or 30 year cycle. For Australian Federal Government cabinet papers, we now have access to the year 1990. This cycle has given rise to the annual Bob and Paul recommencement of hostilities. I must say, this version of a Punch and Judy show is one of my favourite more recently added customs. Bob Hawke and Paul Keating, two giants of Australian politics, still banging on at each other about who was right, who said what, who was the better PM, who reneged on a deal, who brought home the bacon and carried the Government etc. Each yearly release of cabinet papers starts off a new round of argy bargy. It is the season for it. Silly old buggers.
The Ungrateful Dead
Grateful Dead, the US rock band, is this year celebrating 50 years of, well, live performances, I guess. I bet the founding members didn’t think when they formed the band in 1965 and gave it such a great name (that pun was actually intended) that they wouldn’t be around half a century later. I guess it just goes to show, you just can’t tell how long you will last in this world.
Which makes me think of the pursed-lipped tut-tutting that is happening in Australia right now about The Ungrateful Dead. These are people who have the temerity to die before using up all their superannuation savings, hence bequeath the residual to the next generation. Here’s a piece of journalism on the topic in today’s Financial Review:
“This year an estimated $8.5 billion will be bequeathed by the estates of Australians who die before using up their retirement savings, according to superannuation advisory firm Rice Warner.”
The social services Minister has stated that he thinks that people who have been granted tax concessions to build up their super should actually spend it, rather than saving it and drawing the age pension. There is some logic missing in there, given our means-testing system that increases the amount of age pension when you have less assets separately, but we’ll let it go.
The Ungrateful Dead. So many media commentators today are lining up and tut-tutting their mean, thrifty behaviour – unfairly using tax concessions to pass on wealth to the undeserving next generation. It’s not more than a few years ago that the Ungrateful Dead were being criticized for blowing their super savings on a round-the-world holiday then coming home to live on the pension. Double-dipping, it was called. And then they didn’t die soon enough!
If you want to avoid this disapproval in the eyes of the journalists writing this stuff, then you should do the sensible thing and plan to use up all your savings on the day you die. This only requires a simple calculation of how much you should spend each year once you determine what your future investment return will be and how long you will live for. Simple, really.
Much ado about Nothing
Apologies to Shakespeare, of course, but the title of his comedy from the late 16th century could equally apply to the 2015 Budget changes supposedly intended to make the age pension more sustainable. In case you missed it, the asset test arrangements are to be re-jigged for entitlement to the age pension. At lower levels of assets, the threshold has been lifted meaning some people with assets around the margin will receive higher age pension payments. At the upper end, the threshold has been lowered so some people with higher levels of assets around that margin will have lower pension payments. The rate of taper between the two thresholds will accelerate.
A Shakespearian comparison is valid. Equally, is the contemptuous Mick Dundee New York scene – “that’s not a knife”.
I won’t bore you with modelling charts as the end result is a yawn. For the vast bulk of the population, these changes mean virtually nothing. Many people will see payments marginally increase. Those with assets at the higher end of the means-test will see initially lower pension payments, then as their personal assets reduce more quickly to make up for the short fall, they will then move on to the higher pension payments. For most, it is simply a minor timing switch in the receipt of pensions.
“That’s not sustainability.”
Longevity – is it a new incurable disease?
If you care to look at the financial press, personal investment magazines or the information brochures published by superannuation funds, you could be excused for concluding that a new incurable disease has become entrenched in the community – longevity. The fear of living too long and running out of money in retirement is affecting more and more people, particularly in the light of weakening Government finances which are needed to pay for the age pension.
Enormous volumes of papers and investment brochures, armies of financial advisors, whizz-bang calculators and projectors available on-line are all at work on the population. The message is almost always that Australians need to save more for retirement. People are constantly reminded of how long they are expected to live and how much money they will need to meet living expenses. However, funding a comfortable lifestyle in retirement is increasingly looking beyond the capability of the average person.
The expectation of life of a 65 year old male in Australia is now just over 19 years and fractionally over 22 years for a 65 year old female, according to the Australian Life Tables 2010-12 recently released by the Australian Government Actuary. At the start of the 20th century, when the Government funded old-age pension was introduced in Australia, the expectation of life at age 65 was 11.3 years for males and 14.2 years for females. If life expectancies continue to improve, then at some point, it becomes impossible for the average household to fund retirement. The value of wages earned on a life-time of labour over a 45 year time-frame, say from age 20 to age 65, is simply not enough. If the retirement age is held constant at 65, the problem has no solution – it does not matter how much people are cajoled about saving more, the preference for food, clothing, shelter, medicine in the present will always be stronger than the preference for a greater superannuation balance that could be needed many years into the future. Continue reading
The rise and rise of risk aversion
Writing in 1896, Norwood Young opined in the Badminton Magazine that:
“A great change is gradually coming over the world. Adventure, sport, enterprise, are giving way to caution and the calculation of averages. Men do not take the risks they used to. The modern man is surrounded by police constables, sanitary inspectors, and insurance agents.”
Granted, the Badminton Magazine, with full title ‘The Badminton Library of Sports and Pastimes’ was a journal that covered in full detail the adventures of the day, with detailed articles on sports such as cricket, football and rowing, but also shooting, motor racing and cycling. It was both a manual and celebration of adventure. Norwood was clearly miffed that the sporting attitude and let’s have a go mentality was on the wane. He may have been premature – he wrote this before Scott, Shackleton, Amundsen et al set off on foot in their various adventures to find the South Magnetic Pole.
Fast forward to 2014 and listen to the character Cooper in the film Interstellar complaining that “It’s like we’ve forgotten who we are – explorers and pioneers, not caretakers.”
More than 100 years passed between the writing of the essay in the Badminton Magazine and the writing of the Interstellar screenplay. Yet both spring from the same yearning, the same perception, the same disappointment. It is too easy to dismiss these views as the misconceived grumblings of individuals who never grew up and never moved on from boyhood adventure games and fantasy. Great adventures are still planned and undertaken today but society makes it much harder for those individuals than ever before. It is inconceivable that anyone would set off today on the equivalent of a South Pole exploration so ill-equipped as were Scott and his team. ‘The authorities’ would not permit it. When young sailors plotted a trans-ocean adventure 50 years ago, the media didn’t know about the trip until after it was completed, as was the case for Robin Lee Graham. Today, in some cases courts of law intervene to ban the planned trip, as in the case of Laura Dekker. In others, community anger and backlash against the trips can be feral, as was the case with Jessica Watson. Continue reading